The Cubs are almost finished with any chance of a playoff spot. The Cardinals magic number (read Cubs Elimination Number) is 1. The only chance would be the Cubs winning out and Cardinals losing out. Could it happen? Yes. Odds 0.0002% according to Baseball Prospectus. So, that's 1 in 500,000 chance. Better than the lottery I guess, but not by much.
Wild Card is a minuscule bit brighter. Cubs have a 0.09677% chance, or about 1 in 1000. Their elimination # is 4 (magic number 17). The Rockies and Cards play this weekend, which makes one of these scenarios almost surely impossible.
So, mathematically the Cubs have a chance. But being a betting man, which I am, I wouldn't even bet on it if I got the odds placed above.
Lots is going to happen this off season, I feel. Milton will never return to Wrigley (at least in a Cubs uniform). Perhaps Hendry makes some serious moves with our older players and we get some young talent in here. I'm a little burned out on the Cubs now. I need to reflect a bit over the next month or so.
Friday, September 25, 2009
20
updated at 9:39 AM Posted by Mister Pickles
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How The Number Works
The Chicago Cubs Magic Number is derived by the following equation: Total Number of Games + 1 - Wins by the Cubs - Losses by Best Opponent.
The Magic Number is affected by one of two events, a Cubs win or the best opponent losing. The number is 163 at the beginning of the season. When the number hits 0, the Cubs have clinched the NL Central and are in the PLAYOFFS!
This site represents the Magic Number for clinching the National League Central Division . If the Wild Card becomes relevant for getting into the post season, this site may contain both. In that case, the Wild Card number will clearly be denote.
Shoot an email to 2009@cubsmagicnumber.com with comments and suggestions. Also, drop a Cubs theme'd photo with a story. It may be posted during future number updates.
The Magic Number is affected by one of two events, a Cubs win or the best opponent losing. The number is 163 at the beginning of the season. When the number hits 0, the Cubs have clinched the NL Central and are in the PLAYOFFS!
This site represents the Magic Number for clinching the National League Central Division . If the Wild Card becomes relevant for getting into the post season, this site may contain both. In that case, the Wild Card number will clearly be denote.
Shoot an email to 2009@cubsmagicnumber.com with comments and suggestions. Also, drop a Cubs theme'd photo with a story. It may be posted during future number updates.
This is the year
I will watch from just over the rail.
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