The Cubs are now officially eliminated from both the NL Central and NL Wild Card. So, I'm saying there's no chance in 2009. Maybe next year.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Friday, September 25, 2009
The Cubs are almost finished with any chance of a playoff spot. The Cardinals magic number (read Cubs Elimination Number) is 1. The only chance would be the Cubs winning out and Cardinals losing out. Could it happen? Yes. Odds 0.0002% according to Baseball Prospectus. So, that's 1 in 500,000 chance. Better than the lottery I guess, but not by much.
Wild Card is a minuscule bit brighter. Cubs have a 0.09677% chance, or about 1 in 1000. Their elimination # is 4 (magic number 17). The Rockies and Cards play this weekend, which makes one of these scenarios almost surely impossible.
So, mathematically the Cubs have a chance. But being a betting man, which I am, I wouldn't even bet on it if I got the odds placed above.
Lots is going to happen this off season, I feel. Milton will never return to Wrigley (at least in a Cubs uniform). Perhaps Hendry makes some serious moves with our older players and we get some young talent in here. I'm a little burned out on the Cubs now. I need to reflect a bit over the next month or so.
updated at 9:39 AM Posted by Mister Pickles
Thursday, September 17, 2009
WILD CARD MAGIC NUMBER: 24
Alright, the Cubs are not mathematically eliminated so there's still a chance. I'm agreeing with the people in the chat box that the best chance is as follows:
Cubs win today against the Brewers. They then sweep the Cardinals over the weekend which puts the Cubs at 5 games back with 14 games to play. The Cubs will have to play solid (like win out) the remaining games with the Cardinals playing so-so in order to catch them and win the division. It can happen. Stranger things have happened.
The Wild Card is tightening as well, but I'm not going to draw up a scenario for that. Too many things have to go right for the Cubs to land that spot.
Hang in there Cubs Fans!
updated at 12:19 PM Posted by Mister Pickles
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Someone wants an update. Well, there it is. That's a decent number entering September. Not good half way though.
The elmination number is 10, which may mean the Cubs won't be mathematically eliminated for 5 or so days at worst. At best, Cubs win out and Cards lose out and we're in the playoffs! Very unlikely, but there's a chance.
As for the Wild Card, the number 26. Lower BUT there's 4 teams competing with better records than the Cubs. Only chance for the Cubs is the STL fail Cubs Win Out, I'm afraid. It'd be crazy to see Colorado, San Fran, Florida and Atlanta not win some games and edge the Cubs out. But, there's still a chance...
updated at 7:34 PM Posted by Mister Pickles
How The Number Works
The Magic Number is affected by one of two events, a Cubs win or the best opponent losing. The number is 163 at the beginning of the season. When the number hits 0, the Cubs have clinched the NL Central and are in the PLAYOFFS!
This site represents the Magic Number for clinching the National League Central Division . If the Wild Card becomes relevant for getting into the post season, this site may contain both. In that case, the Wild Card number will clearly be denote.
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